This is likely to grow between now and November because A) the administration is committed to cruelty, dominance, and unwilling to bend to law or morality vs B) border crossings are extremely low and thus no longer a concern.
Reform is a false hope. There is no way to reform ICE, CBP, and frankly DHS. The workforce is full of people who have become accustomed to cruelty and violence. Those who couldn’t tolerate it have resigned. Others will resign over the next three years. With the expanded budgets they will hire tens of thousands of new agents. All with at best a high tolerance for cruelty and violence. What will be left when Trump’s term ends will be wannabe authoritarians who think they are and should be uncountable to the law. Full immunity as Vance says.
It is true that Democrats need to start figuring out how the functions of DHS should be handled. It might be relatively easy to move investigations into criminal organizations and behavior to the FBI. It’ll be harder to reinvent border security and immigration. Democrats should start this process now and include centrist, moderate, and non-MAGA conservative voices.
But good luck getting anything done with the malignant human beings who have been and will continue to do Stephen Miller’s bidding.
Human beings are the foundation of any government enterprise. Can’t build an effective and just immigration and border security system(s) on the current foundation.
People are indeed unhappy. But that doesn't translate to favorable ratings for Democrats. The WSJ poll shows "Who is best able to handle (issue)". Republicans are kicking Democrats butts on immigration, border security, and crime. Maybe distrust is a bad word, but voters clearly have a preference for Republicans.
I don't think Democrats should base their positions on what may or may not be popular in the future. Things happen. The shootings in Minneapolis, for all the left's very correct warnings, wasn't certain until it happened. And the Admin's response has made it worse, they could've made it worse for Democrats instead. That's a win we should take not spoil with further predictions about voter sentiment. I'm on Team No One Cared About The Border: Biden shut down the border for months before leaving and no one cared. Democrats offered substantive policy with some R's on immigration, Trump killed it. Then they haven't done any legislation dealing with border security. They always cared about deportations. Democrats don't have an alternative to that at the moment.
We can reform them because there was a time most people were satisfied with their conduct. And they do important work. Again, what is the alternative? No Democrat has offered one that isn't ICE but non-Trump-inspired. Gotta come up with that before we can even contemplate abolition.
I agree with you on Democrats needing to figure out how they would like to change the functions of the institutions and make sure it has a super wide appeal (except MAGA). And I agree about your point on humans--people. People can always learn, adapt, be fired or change jobs. We're already seeing progress here so beware of the pessimism. What Democrats are doing now is working. I really am just stressing for them not to think they have some mandate on the issue. They don't.
Democrats are viewed poorly. I would say that’s because of trust. But maybe it is because of dislike. Maybe it’s residual from COVID shutdowns. Maybe it’s because Democrats are distracted by pet issues (for example the Iowa Democratic platform has something like 900 position statements). Maybe it’s because when Obama was President the banks were bailed out. Maybe it’s because of thirty years of talk radio+Fox News+right wing podcasting.
There is also something particular about crime. Americans show no capability of understanding when crime is increasing or decreasing. This is a structural advantage for Republicans. It’s also why Republicans work so hard to tie crime and immigration together.
Regardless, Democrats are viewed poorly. One could argue they have never won a yes election since LBJ. (Carter won a “no to Nixon’s corruption”, Clinton won with low 40s support due to a Perot third party campaigns, Obama won a “no to Iraq War & economic mismanagement, Biden won a “no to Trumpism”)
The question is how to alter the opinion of the electorate.
There are always two ways to do that. To do what is popular and to do what is effective.
Right now polling from before the second murder already suggested more Americans want to disband ICE than keep it. Will it remain popular? Not likely, because partisanship will assert itself when Democrats run on it. But that is true of whatever position that Democrats champion including your favored position of reform. I would argue that any immigration legislation and policy making will be difficult and require short-term political costs. And not doing anything would have political costs.
*While Democrats should not do a thing just because they think it will popular in the future, when considering the popularity of a stand or political proposal, they should be forecasting its popularity at the next election as well as a few years down the road. But mostly they should focus on what’s right and what will work.
Effectiveness is more important than popularity because the effects are more lasting and because we believe that government can provide collective benefits. Think ACA which became more popular because of its effectiveness on pre-existing conditions and keeping children on parents’ policies.
I don’t think ICE and CBP can be effectively reformed. The culture is clearly twisted and sick. Already a culture of “us” who hate them (liberals, immigrants, media).
Building something new has a chance.
Camden, NJ’s policing might provide a small size example. If I recall correctly, they disbanded the city’s police department entirely. The county took over policing. The benefits were a county-union contract that benefited the public instead of protecting bad cops and that instead of removing bad cops one by one, they could hire and rehire good cops one by one. Spending on public safety decreased. The reputation of the force and relationship with the public positively increased. And crime went down.
I couldn’t disagree more.
The Wall Street Journal poll and you are confusing distrust in Democrats with interest in ideas. Distrust is a huge problem, but it isn’t solved by attempting to take on conservative/Republican ideas. When people are asked on their views about immigration enforcement and ICE, they state they are unhappy. Here’s an example. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/americans-largely-odds-trump-administration-immigration-ice-tactics/story?id=129567440
This is likely to grow between now and November because A) the administration is committed to cruelty, dominance, and unwilling to bend to law or morality vs B) border crossings are extremely low and thus no longer a concern.
Reform is a false hope. There is no way to reform ICE, CBP, and frankly DHS. The workforce is full of people who have become accustomed to cruelty and violence. Those who couldn’t tolerate it have resigned. Others will resign over the next three years. With the expanded budgets they will hire tens of thousands of new agents. All with at best a high tolerance for cruelty and violence. What will be left when Trump’s term ends will be wannabe authoritarians who think they are and should be uncountable to the law. Full immunity as Vance says.
It is true that Democrats need to start figuring out how the functions of DHS should be handled. It might be relatively easy to move investigations into criminal organizations and behavior to the FBI. It’ll be harder to reinvent border security and immigration. Democrats should start this process now and include centrist, moderate, and non-MAGA conservative voices.
But good luck getting anything done with the malignant human beings who have been and will continue to do Stephen Miller’s bidding.
Human beings are the foundation of any government enterprise. Can’t build an effective and just immigration and border security system(s) on the current foundation.
I appreciate the feedback! Thanks for reading!
People are indeed unhappy. But that doesn't translate to favorable ratings for Democrats. The WSJ poll shows "Who is best able to handle (issue)". Republicans are kicking Democrats butts on immigration, border security, and crime. Maybe distrust is a bad word, but voters clearly have a preference for Republicans.
I don't think Democrats should base their positions on what may or may not be popular in the future. Things happen. The shootings in Minneapolis, for all the left's very correct warnings, wasn't certain until it happened. And the Admin's response has made it worse, they could've made it worse for Democrats instead. That's a win we should take not spoil with further predictions about voter sentiment. I'm on Team No One Cared About The Border: Biden shut down the border for months before leaving and no one cared. Democrats offered substantive policy with some R's on immigration, Trump killed it. Then they haven't done any legislation dealing with border security. They always cared about deportations. Democrats don't have an alternative to that at the moment.
We can reform them because there was a time most people were satisfied with their conduct. And they do important work. Again, what is the alternative? No Democrat has offered one that isn't ICE but non-Trump-inspired. Gotta come up with that before we can even contemplate abolition.
I agree with you on Democrats needing to figure out how they would like to change the functions of the institutions and make sure it has a super wide appeal (except MAGA). And I agree about your point on humans--people. People can always learn, adapt, be fired or change jobs. We're already seeing progress here so beware of the pessimism. What Democrats are doing now is working. I really am just stressing for them not to think they have some mandate on the issue. They don't.
Perhaps my point wasn’t clear.
Democrats are viewed poorly. I would say that’s because of trust. But maybe it is because of dislike. Maybe it’s residual from COVID shutdowns. Maybe it’s because Democrats are distracted by pet issues (for example the Iowa Democratic platform has something like 900 position statements). Maybe it’s because when Obama was President the banks were bailed out. Maybe it’s because of thirty years of talk radio+Fox News+right wing podcasting.
There is also something particular about crime. Americans show no capability of understanding when crime is increasing or decreasing. This is a structural advantage for Republicans. It’s also why Republicans work so hard to tie crime and immigration together.
Regardless, Democrats are viewed poorly. One could argue they have never won a yes election since LBJ. (Carter won a “no to Nixon’s corruption”, Clinton won with low 40s support due to a Perot third party campaigns, Obama won a “no to Iraq War & economic mismanagement, Biden won a “no to Trumpism”)
The question is how to alter the opinion of the electorate.
There are always two ways to do that. To do what is popular and to do what is effective.
Right now polling from before the second murder already suggested more Americans want to disband ICE than keep it. Will it remain popular? Not likely, because partisanship will assert itself when Democrats run on it. But that is true of whatever position that Democrats champion including your favored position of reform. I would argue that any immigration legislation and policy making will be difficult and require short-term political costs. And not doing anything would have political costs.
*While Democrats should not do a thing just because they think it will popular in the future, when considering the popularity of a stand or political proposal, they should be forecasting its popularity at the next election as well as a few years down the road. But mostly they should focus on what’s right and what will work.
Effectiveness is more important than popularity because the effects are more lasting and because we believe that government can provide collective benefits. Think ACA which became more popular because of its effectiveness on pre-existing conditions and keeping children on parents’ policies.
I don’t think ICE and CBP can be effectively reformed. The culture is clearly twisted and sick. Already a culture of “us” who hate them (liberals, immigrants, media).
Building something new has a chance.
Camden, NJ’s policing might provide a small size example. If I recall correctly, they disbanded the city’s police department entirely. The county took over policing. The benefits were a county-union contract that benefited the public instead of protecting bad cops and that instead of removing bad cops one by one, they could hire and rehire good cops one by one. Spending on public safety decreased. The reputation of the force and relationship with the public positively increased. And crime went down.
Great read thank you